The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

For years, India has balanced close partnerships with both Washington and Moscow, even throughout Ukraine war. Trump is finally demanding it picks a side

Rajan acknowledged India maintains steep tariffs in some sectors, but said both sides have a case. U.S. exporters face hurdles in India, while Indian farmers compete with heavily subsidized American agriculture and lack a social safety net.